Ökonomeetria Labor 11 - fiktiivne (0)

Ülesanne










1.
Koostada regressioonimudel .




2.
Anda hinnang regressioonijääkidele




3.
Koostada diagramm regressioonijääkide sõltuvuse kohta vaatluse järjekorranumbrist.




4.
Täiendada mudelit fiktiivsete muutujatega (aasta iseloomustamiseks)





(ilmastiku mõju arvestamiseks)




5.
Koostada uus regressioonimudel ja diagramm punkti 3 kohaselt.




6.
Võrrelda erinevaid mudeleid .




















ühele aastale 1 ja teistele panen 0
Hindepunkt Teravilja osakaal kogu põllumaast Fosforväetis kg/ha teravilja hind Teravilja saagikus kg/ha




Aasta 2001 1999 1994 x1 x2 x3 x4 Y
1)
SUMMARY OUTPUT



1 Harju 2002 0 0 0 42 45.6405117019 13.1601290542 1.33 1799



2 Hiiu 2002 0 0 0 33 14.7855530474 21.8687872763 1.33 1512
Regression Statistics



3 Ida-Viru 2002 0 0 0 42 43.793554007 8.9777005502 1.33 1878
Multiple R 0.8331163283



4 Jõgeva 2002 0 0 0 47 43.6018701672 15.4793073354 1.33 2247
R Square 0.6940828165



5 Järva 2002 0 0 0 50 40.2072134559 16.39789817 1.33 1865
Adjusted R Square 0.68466998



6 Lääne 2002 0 0 0 38 39.7649855974 14.4927536232 1.33 1645
Standard Error 219.6719235299



7 Lääne-Viru 2002 0 0 0 46 54.8282984766 10.2768108735 1.33 2272
Observations 135



8 Põlva 2002 0 0 0 38 45.0972686186 7.8441800173 1.33 2172


SUMMARY OUTPUT

9 Pärnu 2002 0 0 0 39 34.2730485588 8.5783358029 1.33 1417
ANOVA



10 Rapla 2002 0 0 0 43 38.391127334 6.163615988 1.33 1733

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression Statistics

11 Saare 2002 0 0 0 38 24.5637743948 4.2983565107 1.33 1519
Regression 4 14233112.3816505 3558278.09541261 73.7379027659 1.6908205456714E-032

Multiple R 0.8632116717

12 Tartu 2002 0 0 0 45 60.5383015013 13.3999710271 1.33 2367
Residual 130 6273248.01834954 48255.7539873042

R Square 0.7451343902

13 Valga 2002 0 0 0 39 45.3629598427 17.1319796954 1.33 2331
Total 134 20506360.4

Adjusted R Square 0.7310866794

14 Viljandi 2002 0 0 0 46 45.6614116738 14.341049525 1.33 1973


Standard Error 202.8607615285

15 Võru 2002 0 0 0 37 40.8590181553 17.1516079632 1.33 1805

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%
Observations 135

16 Harju 2001 1 0 0 42 42.1029668412 15.4496965238 1.28 1987
Intercept -1916.8992174367 238.9411247635 -8.0224750734 5.30359642000001E-013 - 2389 .6156502158 -1444.1827846575 -2389.6156502158 -1444.1827846575


17 Hiiu 2001 1 0 0 33 15.3436185133 13.5135135135 1.28 1946
x1 30.890119453 5.3505169751 5.7732962248 5.42123752038067E-008 20.3047616562 41.4754772499 20.3047616562 41.4754772499
ANOVA

18 Ida-Viru 2001 1 0 0 42 37.5032475968 9.9871134021 1.28 1785
x2 6.6876682557 2.3818308788 2.8077846816 0.005757689 1.9755007809 11.3998357305 1.9755007809 11.3998357305

df SS MS F Significance F
19 Jõgeva 2001 1 0 0 47 44.8697528644 11.3089005236 1.28 2080
x3 11.0408616782 2.7198139105 4.059418049 8.44432759136974E-005 5.6600352053 16.421688151 5.6600352053 16.421688151
Regression 7 15279994.3518724 2182856.33598178 53.0431187018 1.00446270387408E-034
20 Järva 2001 1 0 0 50 38.8630812024 20.9019713746 1.28 2325
x4 1548.4425989462 121.5685247178 12.7371998841 1.26744571702827E-024 1307.9338150369 1788.9513828556 1307.9338150369 1788.9513828556
Residual 127 5226366.04812755 41152.4885679335

21 Lääne 2001 1 0 0 38 33.7694194603 14.6620847652 1.28 1689


Total 134 20506360.4

22 Lääne-Viru 2001 1 0 0 46 50.8503783622 11.6471579192 1.28 1931



23 Põlva 2001 1 0 0 38 47.0371544973 11.0799119678 1.28 2325



Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%
24 Pärnu 2001 1 0 0 39 35.4632256996 15.7290359934 1.28 1902
RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Intercept -1932.5036789626 284.6497190952 -6.7890587952 3.87912086844928E-010 -2495.7740961692 - 1369 .233261756 -2495.7740961692 -1369.233261756
25 Rapla 2001 1 0 0 43 40.4542707026 11.9673324169 1.28 2048


2001 255.1981555598 57.2848232631 4.4548999372 1.82033296170604E-005 141.8418297515 368.5544813681 141.8418297515 368.5544813681
26 Saare 2001 1 0 0 38 28.2883909356 10.2347983143 1.28 1783

Observation Predicted Y Residuals y aasta

1999 -73.6156973999 77.5823749985 -0.948871408 0.344488135 -227.137214555 79.9058197552 -227.137214555 79.9058197552
27 Tartu 2001 1 0 0 45 58.3026766459 8.0437580438 1.28 2252
1 1890.4422220262 -91.4422220262 0 2002

1994 100.9551789968 74.5131249624 1.3548643819 0.1778659665 -46.4928463107 248.4032043043 -46.4928463107 248.4032043043
28 Valga 2001 1 0 0 39 44.4525873056 19.0170940171 1.28 2044
2 1502 .2345102575 9.7654897425 0 2002
x1 31.6580697999 4.9464032201 6.4002201986 2.7303158340892E-009 21.8700306115 41.4461089882 21.8700306115 41.4461089882
29 Viljandi 2001 1 0 0 46 42.0223577236 16.5601023018 1.28 1854
3 1831 .9127670893 46.0872329107 0 2002
x2 6.1389785413 2.2056982506 2.7832358935 0.0062044502 1.7742998134 10.5036572692 1.7742998134 10.5036572692
30 Võru 2001 1 0 0 37 39.6984429407 13.2961042415 1.28 1830
4 2056.8647876256 190.1352123744 0 2002
x3 8.9759645274 2.5801220269 3.4788914764 0.0006903169 3.8703687266 14.0815603282 3.8703687266 14.0815603282
31 Harju 2000 0 0 0 42 38.2308730006 12.4391563007 1.45 1929
5 2136.9748423998 -271.9748423998 0 2002
x4 1547 .6315831686 172.5503880151 8.9691573631 3.29468171483536E-015 1206 .185509182 1889.0776571552 1206.185509182 1889.0776571552
32 Hiiu 2000 0 0 0 33 9.2363636364 19.6078431373 1.45 1646
6 1742 .3014983344 -97.3014983344 0 2002

33 Ida-Viru 2000 0 0 0 42 41.0349288486 4.3795620438 1.45 2116
7 2043.613252585 228.386747415 0 2002

34 Jõgeva 2000 0 0 0 47 38.7308667624 51.5133876601 1.45 2451
8 1704.556056686 467.4439433141 0 2002

35 Järva 2000 0 0 0 50 39.7499302038 10.5916966329 1.45 2391
9 1671.163095731 -254.163095731 0 2002
RESIDUAL OUTPUT

36 Lääne 2000 0 0 0 38 45.8100558659 15.7756354075 1.45 2007
10 1795.6033307758 -62.6033307758 0 2002

37 Lääne-Viru 2000 0 0 0 46 46.4582956396 5.5248618785 1.45 2037
11 1528.0859123165 -9.0859123165 0 2002
Observation Predicted Y Residuals y aasta
38 Põlva 2000 0 0 0 38 47.2799530914 12.3157305467 1.45 2056
12 2085.3921183543 281.6078816457 0 2002
1 1853.7962317625 -54.7962317625 0 2002 39 Pärnu 2000 0 0 0 39 29.6340771874 7.8010726475 1.45 2002
13 1839.7683424455 491.2316575545 0 2002
2 1457.6242817744 54.3757182256 0 2002 40 Rapla 2000 0 0 0 43 40.9312058593 8.1693278871 1.45 2082
14 2027.1808514886 -54.1808514886 0 2002
3 1804.916468217 73.083531783 0 2002 41 Saare 2000 0 0 0 38 24.0696596477 4.948045522 1.45 1682
15 1748 .0839486807 56.9160513193 0 2002
4 2020.3882661122 226.6117338879 0 2002 42 Tartu 2000 0 0 0 45 59.2990160202 6.70978173 1.45 2376
16 1814 .6409633458 172.3590366543 0 2001
5 2102.7679895513 -237.7679895513 0 2002 43 Valga 2000 0 0 0 39 42.8159384681 26.4786795048 1.45 2074
17 1336.2951151127 609.7048848873 0 2001

6 1703.0558147481 -58.0558147481 0 2002 44 Viljandi 2000 0 0 0 46 46.2510711225 13.8478581979 1.45 1859
18 1723 .567942317 61.432057683 0 2001

7 2010.9515751031 261.0484248969 0 2002 45 Võru 2000 0 0 0 37 33.059995848 22.2929936306 1.45 1727
19 1941.8769517924 138.1230482076 0 2001

8 1676.1132249474 495.8867750526 0 2002 46 Harju 99 0 1 0 42 36.0444136017 5.0629027309 1.02 1031
20 2100.2924510901 224.7075489099 0 2001

9 1647.9113963626 -230.9113963626 0 2002 47 Hiiu 99 0 1 0 33 9.2955700799 12.6582278481 1.02 1250
21 1626.6525727741 62.3474272259 0 2001

10 1778.1500333933 -45.1500333932 0 2002 48 Ida-Viru 99 0 1 0 42 43.6987765768 2.886002886 1.02 779
22 1954.7179247468 -23.7179247468 0 2001

11 1518 .2313585153 0.7686414847 0 2002 49 Jõgeva 99 0 1 0 47 37.2492386902 5.4684651841 1.02 1645
23 1675 .8325088431 649.1674911569 0 2001

12 2042.3804660941 324.6195339059 0 2002 50 Järva 99 0 1 0 50 41.0498224211 7.1023575052 1.02 1579
24 1680.650367373 221.349632627 0 2001

13 1792.7693279191 538.2306720809 0 2002 51 Lääne 99 0 1 0 38 38.9129615674 12.084592145 1.02 937
25 1796.0568495519 251.9431504481 0 2001

14 1991.1567156969 -18.1567156968 0 2002 52 Lääne-Viru 99 0 1 0 46 42.7890564135 1.00020004 1.02 1227
26 1541 .1162149863 241.8837850137 0 2001

15 1701.9797695846 103.0202304154 0 2002 53 Põlva 99 0 1 0 38 45.8022446548 15.4989384289 1.02 1328
27 1933.8816643623 318.1183356377 0 2001

16 2030.4469725654 -43.4469725654 0 2001
54 Pärnu 99 0 1 0 39 30.097713567 8.0888183981 1.02 1006
28 1777 .0712294539 266.9287705461 0 2001

17 1563 .8701691842 382.1298308158 0 2001
55 Rapla 99 0 1 0 43 35.9753496089 8.7336244541 1.02 1150
29 1949.9221907222 -95.9221907222 0 2001

18 1953.1774424994 -168.1774424994 0 2001
56 Saare 99 0 1 0 38 26.4238277319 2.4650780608 1.02 983
30 1620 .3321934203 209.6678065797 0 2001

19 2168.5549235762 -88.5549235762 0 2001
57 Tartu 99 0 1 0 45 56.5251469628 4.7020439497 1.02 1373
31 2018 .7419679257 -89.7419679257 0 2000

20 2312.7613682053 12.2386317947 0 2001
58 Valga 99 0 1 0 39 43.0985915493 14.2131979695 1.02 1223
32 1625.9737127603 20.0262872397 0 2000

21 1845.5856496153 -156.5856496153 0 2001
59 Viljandi 99 0 1 0 46 42.8376878846 2.9933718195 1.02 1295
33 1948.5096978354 167.4903021646 0 2000

22 2176.647971755 -245.647971755 0 2001
60 Võru 99 0 1 0 37 32.1895585488 16.4728682171 1.02 1026
34 2607.9495412192 -156.9495412192 0 2000

23 1894.8825343389 430.1174656611 0 2001
61 Harju 98 0 0 0 42 37.3446594305 6.399646916 1.17 1548
35 2255.6243275383 135.3756724617 0 2000

24 1897 .218875948 4.781124052 0 2001
62 Hiiu 98 0 0 0 33 7.7771329077 0 1.17 1239
36 1982.7061550769 24.2938449231 0 2000

25 2020.7261554543 27.2738445458 0 2001
63 Ida-Viru 98 0 0 0 42 44.4115470022 2.6711185309 1.17 1271
37 2120.9849506288 -83.9849506288 0 2000

26 1772.1985669817 10.8014330183 0 2001
64 Jõgeva 98 0 0 0 47 42.2066057625 12.4664365171 1.17 1864
38 1954.3360091032 101.6639908968 0 2000

27 2158.3954117427 93.6045882574 0 2001
65 Järva 98 0 0 0 50 42.8933006407 25.6793654921 1.17 2065
39 1817.370651039 184.629348961 0 2000

28 1981.9178661319 62.0821338681 0 2001
66 Lääne 98 0 0 0 38 39.625461579 8.8055130168 1.17 1717
40 2020.5484328138 61.4515671862 0 2000

29 2166.5513569956 -312.5513569956 0 2001
67 Lääne-Viru 98 0 0 0 46 46.6016827416 6.888950124 1.17 1692
41 1717.7676751884 -35.7676751884 0 2000

30 1838.064735006 -8.064735006 0 2001
68 Põlva 98 0 0 0 38 49.2384632871 11.9639527657 1.17 1441
42 2189.0518454258 186.9481545742 0 2000

31 1987.5529828961 -58.5529828961 0 2000
69 Pärnu 98 0 0 0 39 34.4734913267 18.6110417187 1.17 1367
43 2111 .7434400681 -37.7434400681 0 2000

32 1588.979562648 57.020437352 0 2000
70 Rapla 98 0 0 0 43 41.2033650329 20.5716080402 1.17 1516
44 2211.4921529156 -352.4921529156 0 2000

33 1932.424389421 183.575610579 0 2000
71 Saare 98 0 0 0 38 28.9029413471 7.1699704766 1.17 1676
45 1938.5051146316 -211.5051146316 0 2000

34 2499.6416974851 -48.6416974851 0 2000
72 Tartu 98 0 0 0 45 59.0503797747 10.7105746943 1.17 1657
46 1256.8491398971 -225.8491398971 0 99

35 2233.5602684244 157.4397315756 0 2000
73 Valga 98 0 0 0 39 44.4635193133 13.8888888889 1.17 1356
47 883.8096071423 366.1903928577 0 99

36 1937.3972627767 69.6027372233 0 2000
74 Viljandi 98 0 0 0 46 45.2088669081 9.9251545721 1.17 1413
48 1284.0041301087 -505.0041301087 0 99

37 2102.6307716606 -65.6307716606 0 2000
75 Võru 98 0 0 0 37 36.0417727967 8.3507306889 1.17 1350
49 1423.8349666085 221.1650333915 0 99

38 1915.3649470033 140.6350529967 0 2000
76 Harju 97 0 0 0 42 39.4353699017 12.2637426057 1.455 1865
50 1559 .9619472521 19.0380527479 0 99

39 1798 .1719541292 203.8280458708 0 2000
77 Hiiu 97 0 0 0 33 15.2687091914 8.9285714286 1.455 1595
51 1229.9980608239 -292.9980608239 0 99

40 1997.4625097915 84.5374902085 0 2000
78 Ida-Viru 97 0 0 0 42 45.3359298929 8.4779975777 1.455 1518
52 1380 .6598128887 -153.6598128887 0 99

41 1706.745374185 -24.745374185 0 2000
79 Jõgeva 97 0 0 0 47 43.7362464634 22.3531802479 1.455 2358
53 1313.7686256734 14.2313743266 0 99

42 2160.437407287 215.562592713 0 2000
80 Järva 97 0 0 0 50 44.4829899377 16.4399763454 1.455 2441
54 1157.8179408215 -151.8179408215 0 99

43 2046.7446542731 27.2553457269 0 2000
81 Lääne 97 0 0 0 38 36.7172928324 9.3023255814 1.455 1597
55 1327.8053130837 -177.8053130836 0 99

44 2176.0655445222 -317.0655445222 0 2000
82 Lääne-Viru 97 0 0 0 46 49.6549071994 5.6170844152 1.455 2036
56 1040.2671525162 -57.2671525162 0 99

45 1885.966424349 -158.966424349 0 2000
83 Põlva 97 0 0 0 38 52.1341463415 14.2417244034 1.455 1907
57 1482 .5036567203 -109.5036567203 0 99

46 1168 .824087015 -137.824087015 0 99
84 Pärnu 97 0 0 0 39 33.9351692202 21.0607422627 1.455 1733
58 1312.3819275126 -89.3819275126 0 99

47 787.8662512576 462.1337487424 0 99
85 Rapla 97 0 0 0 43 38.3790329556 15.5555555556 1.455 1847
59 1402 .9913779525 -107.9913779525 0 99

48 1196 .2742812791 -417.2742812791 0 99
86 Saare 97 0 0 0 38 28.8578805691 6.4991334489 1.455 1443
60 1202.5944015499 -176.5944015499 0 99

49 1338.1511455726 306.8488544274 0 99
87 Tartu 97 0 0 0 45 61.8807398784 15.7445877979 1.455 2201
61 1512.5699501406 35.4300498594 0 98

50 1471.1228164561 107.8771835439 0 99
88 Valga 97 0 0 0 39 47.1785383904 11.9179600887 1.455 1733
62 966.1634501481 272.8365498519 0 98

51 1122.8281973254 -185.8281973253 0 99
89 Viljandi 97 0 0 0 46 43.6840260196 9.5972309629 1.455 1835
63 1518.6647836567 -247.6647836567 0 98

52 1300.3949084666 -73.3949084665 0 99
90 Võru 97 0 0 0 37 39.3421646846 6.4935064935 1.455 1532
64 1766 .5182163663 97.4817836337 0 98

53 1195.7684094917 132.2315905083 0 99
91 Harju 96 0 0 0 42 36.5700890077 3.2502708559 1.4 2068
65 2009.6630834408 55.3369165592 0 98

54 1064.5037254029 -58.5037254029 0 99
92 Hiiu 96 0 0 0 33 7.0617906683 0 1.4 1435
66 1430.8255552897 286.1744447103 0 98

55 1233.006442423 -83.006442423 0 99
93 Ida-Viru 96 0 0 0 42 37.772626699 4.3343653251 1.4 1638
67 1703.4406579305 -11.4406579304 0 98

56 959.8132555197 23.1867444803 0 99
94 Jõgeva 96 0 0 0 47 42.8877947421 17.9547228728 1.4 2490
68 1529.9860180405 -88.9860180405 0 98

57 1386.2900234089 -13.2900234089 0 99
95 Järva 96 0 0 0 50 44.4523407657 16.4935858277 1.4 2505
69 1535.5224929102 -168.5224929101 0 98

58 1199 .2880501392 23.7119498608 0 99
96 Lääne 96 0 0 0 38 31.2224168126 16.3316582915 1.4 1669
70 1725.736475039 -209.736475039 0 98

59 1318.5840952138 -23.5840952138 0 99
97 Lääne-Viru 96 0 0 0 46 44.9200741092 7.0495542194 1.4 2233
71 1341.0590981578 334.9409018422 0 98

60 1089.2843110286 -63.2843110286 0 99
98 Põlva 96 0 0 0 38 49.2733900365 15.5905280188 1.4 2073
72 1797.9973227164 -140.9973227164 0 98

61 1494 .56527152 53.43472848 0 98
99 Pärnu 96 0 0 0 39 33.0658261607 12.7693535515 1.4 1812
73 1550.1958497327 -194.1958497327 0 98

62 970.6852287729 268.3147712271 0 98
100 Rapla 96 0 0 0 43 40.6483790524 12.3711340206 1.4 2024
74 1727.6482810321 -314.6482810321 0 98

63 1504 .4816041519 -233.4816041519 0 98
101 Saare 96 0 0 0 38 27.6282632799 15.1780502043 1.4 1611
75 1370.9477253529 -20.9477253528 0 98

64 1737.1582929737 126.8417070263 0 98
102 Tartu 96 0 0 0 45 55.0537634409 6.5406976744 1.4 2286
76 2032.6027382672 -167.6027382672 0 97

65 1954.9468892775 110.0531107225 0 98
103 Valga 96 0 0 0 39 44.8878232574 5.981703026 1.4 2011
77 1556.1498898715 38.8501101285 0 97

66 1403.5297565456 313.4702434544 0 98
104 Viljandi 96 0 0 0 46 41.0916791911 15.8819133034 1.4 1812
78 2030.2658388083 -512.2658388083 0 97

67 1682.4181864202 9.5818135798 0 98
105 Võru 96 0 0 0 37 34.1869294773 8.9058524173 1.4 1743
79 2327.2122566038 30.7877433962 0 97

68 1490 .8938108962 -49.8938108962 0 98
106 Harju 95 0 0 0 42 33.2348199893 7.2092582053 1.15 1454
80 2359.5897212284 81.4102787716 0 97

69 1491.5740693206 -124.5740693206 0 98
107 Hiiu 95 0 0 0 33 14.8428405122 28.2258064516 1.15 1149
81 1858.1680669854 -261.1680669854 0 97

70 1677.1188725435 -161.1188725435 0 98
108 Ida-Viru 95 0 0 0 42 37.1638784269 13.1406044678 1.15 987
82 2151.1232575501 -115.1232575501 0 97

71 1323.0238631089 352.9761368911 0 98
109 Jõgeva 95 0 0 0 47 44.3744047889 11.8955986285 1.15 1989
83 2015.8060879676 -108.8060879676 0 97

72 1761.4851671529 -104.4851671529 0 98
110 Järva 95 0 0 0 50 43.5490957662 22.4344735673 1.15 2114
84 2000.2753188065 -267.2753188065 0 97

73 1510.5167604643 -154.5167604642 0 98
111 Lääne 95 0 0 0 38 34.9834756265 6.3218390805 1.15 1257
85 2092.7728781084 -245.7728781084 0 97

74 1701.1205833297 -288.1205833297 0 98
112 Lääne-Viru 95 0 0 0 46 43.0318516062 2.6658767773 1.15 1647
86 1774 .6572684915 -331.6572684915 0 97

75 1345.7893881696 4.2106118304 0 98
113 Põlva 95 0 0 0 38 46.4325529543 18.0517157261 1.15 1504
87 2313.8118151976 -112.8118151976 0 97

76 2001.111014337 -136.111014337 0 97
114 Pärnu 95 0 0 0 39 33.7243058482 8.0992815153 1.15 1244
88 1987.8983850673 -254.8983850673 0 97

77 1537 .8933964445 57.1066035555 0 97
115 Rapla 95 0 0 0 43 41.6902954358 18.8552188552 1.15 1552
89 2155.1362325164 -320.1362325164 0 97

78 2003.3537124237 -485.3537124237 0 97
116 Saare 95 0 0 0 38 30.9791983765 6.4432989691 1.15 1120
90 1813.8204366655 -281.8204366654 0 97

79 2276.3667866346 81.6332133655 0 97
117 Tartu 95 0 0 0 45 50.7035159005 5.4910769999 1.15 1659
91 1828.7598524174 239.2401475826 0 96

80 2322.8485297265 118.1514702735 0 97
118 Valga 95 0 0 0 39 42.3925115025 11.0512893171 1.15 1262
92 1317.5212763196 117.4787236804 0 96

81 1831.2109441747 -234.2109441747 0 97
119 Viljandi 95 0 0 0 46 38.2187178989 6.2195326946 1.15 1488
93 1848.7713626416 -210.7713626416 0 96

82 2130.8206455657 -94.8206455657 0 97
120 Võru 95 0 0 0 37 35.4994865777 10.7009095773 1.15 1163
94 2187.8109905422 302.1890094578 0 96

83 1970.1905456537 -63.1905456536 0 97
121 Harju 94 0 0 1 42 33.3608534121 8.4595442762 1.05 1379
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135 1304.9187934956 -11.9187934956 0 94