paradigm look like? In the next section we address Isserman’s (1984) distinctions between projections, forecasts and plans, and accompany this with a discussion of Wach’s observations on the ethical dilemmas of quantitative judgment (1982). We then discuss the continuities linking past, present and future, drawing in particular on key insights introduced by Perloff (1980). Three principal techniques stand out: visioning, scenarios and storytelling. What is needed today is a new synthesis of skills that includes all of the lessons of the modern era— political relevance, public inclusiveness, quantitative technique, narrative, openness of communication, and more—while recovering lost emphases from the past. The present essay is a first step in identifying useful elements of a new paradigm for addressing the future in planning. CORE ANALYTICAL CONCEPTS-Projection, Forecast and Plan
billion EUR. Compared to the previous year, the value of exports increased 4% and of imports 6% which is the smallest growth during the last four years. The slowdown of the growth was partly caused by the rapid growth rate of exports and imports in 2006 (24% and 30%, respectively). "In conclusion can say that there are good reasons to forecast a strong future inflow of foreign direct investments into Estonia's economy. But future FDI flows will be formed as a consequence of realizing different scenarios of development, which combine the process of European integration, the geopolitical situation in the region, the state of the world economy, and the development policy of the country itself," Urmas Varblane phenomenon nähtus ranks kohal; järjestama, reastama; klassifitseerima per capita inimese kohta; võrdsetes osades; hääletamine; üks hääl inflow sissevool, juurdevool
Hello My name is JOHN SMITH and I am here to talk about Hydroelectricity. Global energy use has risen by 70% since 1971 and continues to increase at the rate of 2% per year. There are many scenarios for future demand. One solution would be to use more hydropower. In 2005, renewable energy represented one-fifth of total power generation. Hydropower is the most advanced of the renewable and represents 87% of this production. 160 countries all over the world are using hydropower. Five countries make up more than half of the world's hydropower production. Those countries are: Brazil,Canada, China, Russia and the USA. (Production)
Peavad tulenema kvalitatiivsetest andmetest Iga eesmärk peab olema väljendatud lihtlausena Informatsiooni otsimise stiil (vajadusel) Vajadused ja mugavusnõuded Tarkvaraarenduse persoonad Eesmärgid on persoona kõige olulisem osa Too välja olulised detailid Kujunda iga persoona eraldi lehele Proovi iga persoona oma lehele mahutada Stsenaariumid „Scenarios are stories. They are stories about people and their activities.“ John M. Carroll Stsenaariumid annavad elava ettekujutuse lõppkasutaja/kasusaaja kogemusest Stsenaariumid panevad paika tõlgenduse ja lahenduse, kuid on „avatud lõpuga“ ja lihtsalt redigeeritavad Stsenaariumeid saab kirjutada erinevatel töö tasanditel, erinevatest perspektiividest ja eesmärkidel Stsenaariumeid annab abstraheerida ja kategoriseerida
Kirjeldage otsingu käiku. Praktiline töö nr 3 Otsing andmebaasides Valin andmebaasi Ebscohost, sealt database PsycArticles. Otsingusõnadeks school violence ja bullying. Full texti kastikesse teen linnukese. Aastates valin 20052010. Sain 4 tulemust. Bauman, S., Del Rio, A.(2006) Preservice teachers' responses to bullying scenarios: Comparing physical, verbal, and relational bullying. Journal of Educational Psychology, 98(1), 219-231. Andmebaas Ebscohost, PsycArticles. 12. Leidke andmebaasist Academic Search Complete täistekstilisi artikleid meedia mõjust lastele (children, mass media influence), mis on ilmunud perioodil 20062010 a. perioodikaväljaannetes. Valige välja üks artikkel ja saatke enda eposti aadressil. Kirjeldage otsingu käiku. Valin database'i Academic Search Complete
1 System development • Modelling in early system development stage corrects design errors before construction. • Beneficial modelling reasons (– Insight: in the design and operation of a system – Completeness: detection of missing parts for simulation and a better understanding of the system requirements – Correctness: errors and flaws are usually detected, problematic scenarios can be reproduced, systematic error investigation) 2 Introduction CPN • CPN is a graphical language for concurrent system design and analysis and also general-purpose modelling environment and also applicable for industrial projects and high level programming. • Petri nets provide(– graphical notation– modelling concurrency, communication, synchronisation)
and in the Future The Internet of Things is the network of physical objects—devices, vehicles, buildings and other items which are embedded with electronics, software, sensors, and network connectivity, which enables these objects to collect and exchange data [1]. As the amount of devices connected to the internet of things is constantly on the rise, making it innately more secure and protecting those devices from abuse, in a sense of unwanted access , manipulation by third parties and other scenarios, is rapidly turning into a pressing issue. According to some sources there were about 13.4 billion connected devices back in 2015 and the projections show there might be up to 38.5 billion such devices in 2020 [2]. As the number of devices increases, the necessity for a proper security mechanism concerning those devices becomes a priority in order to safely adopt the evergrowing internet of things into every aspect of a persons daily life. Privacy
Nanotechnology has the potential to create many new materials and devices with wide-ranging applications, such as in medicine, electronics, and energy production. On the other hand, nanotechnology raises many of the same issues as with any introduction of new technology, including concerns about the toxicity and environmental impact of nanomaterials [1], and their potential effects on global economics, as well as speculation about various doomsday scenarios. These concerns have led to a debate among advocacy groups and governments on whether special regulation of nanotechnology is warranted. · Robotics Robotics is the science and technology of robots, and their design, manufacture, and application.[1] Robotics has connections to electronics, mechanics, and software.[2] · History · High-tech industries · Further analysis from OECD has indicated that using research intensity as only industry
- 1994 european monetary institute - 1999 – fixing of conversion rates - 2002 – euro banknotes Crises - Brexit - Far right and populism - Eurozone crisis - Migration - Eastern flank - Transatlantic relations Key innovations - Public presecutor - European referendum - Minister of Foreign Affairs - Withdrawal clause - Popular initiative - Border guard Developments 5 scenarios proposed by Juncker - Carrying on - Nothing but the single market - Those who want more do more - Doing less more efficiently - Doing much more together Grand theories of European Integrations - Federalism - Functionalism - Neo-functionalism - Intergovernmentaism - Liberal intergovermentalism Theory – group of ideas meant to explain a certain issue EU integration theories are meant to address:
In the United States, for example, surveys find that some people who were raised with no religious affiliation have switched to become Christians, while some who grew up as Christians have switched to become unaffiliated. These types of patterns are projected to continue as future generations come of age. (For more details on how and where switching was modeled, see the Methodology. For alternative growth scenarios involving either switching in additional countries or no switching at all, see Chapter 1.) Over the coming decades, Christians are expected to experience the largest net losses from switching. Globally, about 40 million people are projected to switch into Christianity, while 106 million are projected to leave, with most joining the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated. (See chart above.)
achieved Software requirement document - The software requirements document is the official statement of what is required of the system developers. - Should include both a definition of user requirements and a specification of the system requirements. - It is NOT a design document. As far as possible, it should set on WHAT the system should do rather than HOW it should do it. Nõuete esitamise viisid Natural language, Structured natural language, for example user stories and scenarios, Graphical notations, for example, use cases, activity diagrams, and goal models, Mathematical specifications, for example, in the Z language Kasutuslood (user stories) Üldkuju: As a user playing some role, I must be able to perform some activities [in order to achieve some goal] Scenarios Scenarios are structured descriptions of how a system can be used. They should include: - A description of the starting situation; - A description of the normal flow of events;
of the travel experiences and entail the blend of several cultural identities: the authors' complex ones, that of their audiences, as well as that of the characters in their narratives. The second section suggests interlingual translation scenarios sketched out for the purpose of undertaking the real translations of these books. One of the strategies that are pleaded for is that of `further foreignization'. By using it, translators may create effects of strangeness and defamiliarization for
..................2 A.2.2 Erinevate organisatsiooniliste struktuuride infotehnoloogiavajadused. The IT needs of different organisational structures.................................................................................................................................................2 A.2.2.1 Kirjeldada infotehnoloogianõuded antud organisatsioonilistes stsenaariumides. Discribe differing IT requirements within given organisational scenarios...................................................................................................2 A.2.2.2 Kirjeldada vastavus organisatsiooniliste vajaduste ja infotehnoloogia vahel. Design appropriate matches between organisational need and IT........................................................................................................................... 3 A.2.2.3 Koostada tehnoloogia mõju analüüs antud olukorra kohta
3954. 7. Lättemägi et al. 2004 - R .Lättemägi, P. Vahter, T. Roolaht, K. Ukrainski Puidusektori ekspordivõime tugevad ja nõrgad küljed, Eesti puidusektori konkurentsivõime, Tartu, TÜ Kirjastus, 2004 lk 89-104 8. FAO 2008 Forest products annual market reviev 2007-2008, United Nations, New York and Geneva, 2008 9. Schulmeyer 2006 European Forest Sector Outlook Study: Trends 2000-2005 compared to the EFSOS scenarios, Schulmeyer, F. UNECE, FAO, New York, Geneva 2006. 10. ÄP 04.12.2006 Ajaleht Äripäev 04.12.2006 11. UNECE 2008 - Forest Products Annual Market Review 2007-2008, United Nations, New Yourk and Geneva, 2008 12. EPF 2008 - European Panel Federation, http://www.europanels.eu/mdf/ 13.11.2008 16 17
previously provided internally Offshoring the outsourcing of an activity or a function to a whollyowned company or an independent provider in another country Strategies to Avoid • Avoid outsourcing distinctive competencies Strategies to avoid: • Follow the leader • Hit another home run • Arms race • Do everything • Losing hand Strategic Choice: Selecting the best strategy Corporate Scenarios pro forma balance sheets and income statements that forecast the effect each alternative strategy/its various programs may have on division and corporate return on investment (ROI) Steps include 1. Use industry scenarios to develop assumptions about the task environment 2. Develop common size financial statements for prior years 3. Construct detailed pro forma financial statements for each strategic alternative
Võib esitada erineval abstraktsioonitasemel. · Komponentide vaade, mis kirjeldab tarkvaramoodulite struktuuri, · Evitamise vaade (füüsiline vaade), mis kirjeldab tarkvara evitamisega/rakendamisega seotud füüsiliste elementide (arvutid, võrgud, lisaseadmed jne) ja tarkvara koostööd . Eelpoolviidatud aadressil lähtutakse vaadete 4+1-mudelist, kus loetletud neljale on lisandunud nn stsenaariumite (scenarios) vaade. Kasutusmall on süsteemi osa funktsioonide kirjeldus kasutaja terminates, stsenaariumid aga kasutusmallide (use cases) elemendid (mis ei pruugi olla kirja pandud kasutaja terminates). 1.4. Tarkvara väljastamine Tarkvara väljastamiseks valmisolek peaks saavutatama iga etapi lõpus, see välistab vigade ja mittekavandatud töö kuhjumise. Üldiselt võib protsessi pidada väga efektiivseks, kui 95% vigu kõrvaldatakse nende tekkimise faasis. Tarkvara väljastamiseks valmisoleku üle
Alcamo, J. Bondeau, A. Koch, J. Koelking, C. Priess, J.A. 2010. Indirect land-use changes can overcome carbon saving from biofuels in Brazil. [Online] www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0907318107 Leibtag, 2008. Corn Prices, Near Record High, but what about food costs? Economic Research Service. [http://fmi.staging.matrixgroup.net/docs/media/Impact_of_Corn_Costs_on_Food_Prices.pdf] Margit Tepner k0848752 Msangi, S. Sulser, T. Rosegrand, M. Valmonte-Santos, R. 2007. Global Scenarios for Biofuels: impacts and implication for food security and water use. Mitchell, D. 2008. A note on rising food prices. [Wolrd Bank policy research paper] http://www- wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2008/07/28/000020439 _20080728103002/Rendered/PDF/WP4682.pdf Menichetti, E. Otto, M. 2009. Energy Balance & Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Biofuels from a Life Cycle Perspective. [Online] http://www.uneptie
,describes the specification and design of a soft intensive system via visual models UML2.0 history: fragmentation (the method wars), unification (booch, rumbaugh, Jacobson), standardization (UML1.1) ,industrialization. =>1.3.01.4.1.5 2.0 AN Architectural representation: logical ,implementation, process, deployment views Use Case Diagramm shows all the ways of using the system; classifiers can now own use cases. Associated Diagrams: activity d.-can be used to model interaction between scenarios. Activity Diagram: Focus on flow of activities involved in a process. Significant changes from UML1.X-now address real time flow,incorporated Petri Net concepts -decompose activity into multiple actions -activity parameters and pins Useful because they focus on workflow-don’t have to reference a prticular object so ideal to map complex alternarive flows in a use case. Visual map of a set of activities and possible transitions between them –activities by one or more operations.
us. He investigated nausea experienced by women in their first trimester of pregnancy. During this period, certain hormones lower the level of the mother's immune system, so the body will not fight the new foreign genetic material in her womb. Fessler hypnotized that the nausea response helps to compensate the suppressed immune system. He gathered almost 500 healthy pregnant women and asked them to consider potentially stomach-turning scenarios. He found that women in the early trimester scored much higher across the board in disgust sensitivity than their counterparts in the 2nd and 3rd trimester. According to Fessler, many of the diseases that are most dangerous are food-borne, but our ancestors could not afford to be picky about what they ate. The natural selection may have helped to decrease the chance of disease by increasing the urge to be picky. The sensitivity seems to diminish as the risk of disease decreases. This is
· Goal Seek - kui mingis tabeli lahtris on valemi abil välja arvutatud number ja on vaja, et see number oleks mingi kindel arv, siis saab kasutada Goal Seek-i abi: muudetakse mõne valemis kasutatava lahtri sisu väärtust (kui näiteks palgatabelis ületab töötajate palkade summa palkadeks mõeldud raha, siis Goal Seek-i abil saab kellegi palka vähendada nii, et raha jätkuks täpselt) · Scenarios - saab moodustada ühele tabelile mitu "stsenaariumi", s.t. anda mingi(te)le lahtri(te)le ühes stsenaariumis esimesed andmed, teises stsenaariumis teised andmed, kolmandas .... ja siis vaadata, mis juhtub tabelis olevate andmetega, kui aktiviseerida esimene, teine, kolmas, .... stsenaarium · Solver - sarnane Goal Seek-ga, kuid tunduvalt võimsam abivahend. Saab mingi valemit sisaldava lahtri sisule määrata
right time, and at the lowest possible cost. According to Ganeshan & Harrison (2001) Supply Chain Management is a "systems approach to managing the entire flow of information, materials, and services from raw materials suppliers through factories and warehouses to the end customer." Supply chain event management (abbreviated as SCEM) is a consideration of all possible occurring events and factors that can cause a disruption in a supply chain. With SCEM possible scenarios can be created and solutions can be planned. Some experts distinguish supply chain management and logistics management, while others consider the terms to be interchangeable. From the point of view of an enterprise, the scope of supply chain management is usually bounded on the supply side by your supplier's suppliers and on the customer side by your customer's customers. Supply chain management is also a category of software products.
If the channel is sensed busy, how long should a station persistin sensing carrier? token protocols do this as part of token passing > no additional charge Protocols received bit pattern at the time the signal stops. For 10-Mbps Ethernet, the inter-frame gap is 9.6 s. are optimized for different operating scenarios A CRC error is sent to the controller chip and the This corresponds to 96 bit times (divide 9.6 s by 100 ns Persistence Collision-based: · High number of possible transmitters · Low number of active damaged frame is normally discarded. per bit).
d) One or more experts should be invited to each meeting on a staggered basis. The outside experts should be encouraged to challenge views of the members. e) At least one articulate and knowledgeable member should be given the role of devil's advocate (to question assumptions and plans) f) The leader should make sure that a sizeable block of time is set aside to survey warning signals from rivals; leader and group construct alternative scenarios of rivals' intentions. Grupimõtlemine ja grupipaanika · Ajutised/spontaansed grupid: seltskond ümber liiklusõnnetuse, kinokülastajad, trammiootajad ... · Spontaanne grupp hakkab tegutsema huvi, hirm, paanika, viha · Massipsühholoogia: G.LeBon domineerib emotsioon ja kaob isikliku vastutuse tunne, vastastikune ergutamine, normid hägustuvad, anonüümsus. Kollektiivne hing! · Grupipaanika ja selle juhtimine: luua uus tähelepanufookus. Raadio,
on the associate's reactions d) One or more experts should be invited to each meeting on a staggered basis. The outside experts should be encouraged to challenge views of the members. e) At least one articulate and knowledgeable member should be given the role of devil's advocate (to question assumptions and plans) f) The leader should make sure that a sizeable block of time is set aside to survey warning signals from rivals; leader and group construct alternative scenarios of rivals' intentions. Grupimõtlemine Grupimõtlemine ja grupipaanika • Ajutised/spontaansed grupid: seltskond ümber liiklusõnnetuse, kinokülastajad, trammiootajad … • Spontaanne grupp hakkab tegutsema – huvi, hirm, paanika, viha • Massipsühholoogia: G.LeBon – domineerib emotsioon ja kaob isikliku vastutuse tunne, vastastikune ergutamine, normid hägustuvad, anonüümsus. Kollektiivne hing!
Thus, the training of project participants is crucial for success. Rapid generation and evaluation of construction plan alternatives: Some BIM applications automatically generate a list of tasks according to the objects that are inside of the model; It is possible to visualize and simulate construction processes: general site planning, using model for coordinating meetings, performing different scenarios and etc.; Visualizing construction schedules: 4D (3D model + time/schedule) and 5D (4D + money) in terms of space and money. Online/electronic object-based communication: BIM enables visualization of the current state of the project (process tracking) and this information can be shared with others. This is especially important for the client. 57
1953). The theatre company made a number of important tours, beside Soviet cities, to Halle, Savonlinna, Stockholm and Paris. With his dynamic and figurative settings the choreographer and stage manager Ago-Endrik Kerge (b. 1939) gained a well-deserved reputation. Estonia’s central film studio Tallinnfilm produced 85 full-length feature films and 13 short films. The documentaries obviously made a valuable contribution. The general artistic quality of the feature films and their scenarios could have been much better, however.2 1 Tõnn Sarv, ‘The Theatre Question,’ Teater, Muusika, Kino 12 (1985). 2 Aivo Lõhmus, ‘The Question of Film,’ Teater, Muusika, Kino 2 (1986): 65. Leida Laius, the Grand Old Lady of Estonian film directors, together with Arvo Iho shot a painful and sharp social drama about children abandoned by their parents, Naerata ometi (Smile For All That, 1985), it achieved attention in the West.
is not to have failed to be Nixon himself (because, of course, Nixon need not have been named "Nixon"). He could have failed to have the properties ste- reotypically associated with Nixon, hence failed to "be Nixon" in the sense that Trieste fails to "be Vienna," but as we saw in the previous chapter such flaccid uses of names are unusual. Kripke argues that when one uses the name "Nixon" to refer to a person in this world and then starts describing hypothetical scenarios or alternative possible worlds, continuing to use the name, one is talking about the same person. So if you ask, "Might Nixon have joined the Black Panthers rather than becoming President?," the answer may be yes or may be no, but the sce- nario you are considering is one in which Nixon, that very person, is a Black Panther--not one in which whoever or whatever was the U.S. President was a Panther. You are not imagining a world in which a Black Panther is President of the US.
overall market could shrink dramatically. In each of these cases, the ability of the company to respond quickly and effectively could determine its very survival. These pos- sible reversals and setbacks should be thought through in advance. The best rule is “no surprises!” Royal Dutch/Shell of the Netherlands has one of the most complete forward planning processes of any company in the world. It has developed over 600 scenarios to deal with problems that might occur around the world in areas where it has oil and gas op- ccc_tracy_11_201-221.qxd 6/23/03 3:38 PM Page 205 Create Your Own Future ➤ 205 erations. As a result, the company is seldom surprised by anything that happens. It is never caught off guard. It always has a backup plan ready to go. It has also become one of the most continuously
industry's top writers and directors. From Metropolis and Citizen Kane to Dead Man and Kill Bill, the book illustrates - through 500 frame grabs and 75 script excerpts - how the inherent storytelling devices specific to film were exploited. You will learn: • How non-dialog film techniques can advance story. • How master screenwriters exploit cinematic conventions to create powerful scenarios. "Cinematic Storytelling scores a direct hit in terms of concise information and perfectly chosen visuals, and it also searches out... and finds... an emotional core that many books of this nature either miss or are afraid of." - Kirsten Sheridan, Director, Disco Pigs; Co-writer, In America
starch, or from cheese and crackers. Too many calories are just too many calories. starch, or from cheese and crackers. Too many calories are just too many calories. --Fred Stare, founder and former chair of the Harvard University Nutrition Department The above statement is so ridiculous as to defy belief, but let's take a look at the issue through a more rational lens: hypothetical scenarios. Scenario #1: Two male identical twins eat the exact same meals for 30 days. The only difference: one of the subjects just finished a strong course of antibiotics and now lacks sufficient good bacteria for full digestion. Will the body composition outcomes be the same? Of course not. Rule #1: It's not what you put in your mouth that matters, it's what makes it to your bloodstream. If it passes through, it doesn't count.
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