Yet if practitioners are to construct more intelligent futures, academics must embrace their role in providing the necessary intellectual reinforcement. 22 Myers, Kitsuse 2000 Constracting the Future in Planning If planners did want to strengthen their orientation to the future, what would a contemporary paradigm look like? In the next section we address Isserman’s (1984) distinctions between projections, forecasts and plans, and accompany this with a discussion of Wach’s observations on the ethical dilemmas of quantitative judgment (1982). We then discuss the continuities linking past, present and future, drawing in particular on key insights introduced by Perloff (1980). Three principal techniques stand out: visioning, scenarios and storytelling. What is needed today is a new synthesis of skills that includes all of the lessons of the modern era—
The King's Speech The King's Speech is a true story based drama. The story is set in England in 20 th century. It is about King Georg VI of Britain, his sudden rise to the throne in 1936 and his speech therapist Lionel Logue who helped him to get rid of his stammer. King Georg VI is the son of King George V and father of the currently ruling Queen Elizabeth II. The film is directed by Tom Hooper, starring Colin Firth (King Georg VI), Helena Bonham Carter (his wife Elizabeth) and Geoffrey Rush (Lionel Logue). After the death of King Georg V his older son became his successor - King Edward VIII. However, he stayed as a king only few months as the scandals related with the married woman he loved forced him to resign. He passed the power to his younger brother Prince Albert. For Prince Albert this was the worst nightmare because he was unconfident and unstable because of stammering. He knew very well th...
Island 2018 Üldiseloomustus Kaugus mandrist - 1500 km Atlandi ookeani põhjaosa Islandi vabariik Atlandi ookeani keskahelik Põhja-Ameerika laama ja Euraasia laama piiril kuuma täpi piirkond vulkaanilise tekkega saar saare kogupindala - 103 000 ruutkm 65 N, 18 W Pinnamood: mägine, vulkaanilised mäed laavaväljad, liustikud, geisrid, fjordid keskmine kõrgus 557 m merepinnast Islandi vulkaaniseljaku ülevaade Laamtektoonika Island asub kahe laama - Euraasia ja Põhja-Atlandi laama piiril lahknevad laamad vulkaanilised protsessid, pidevad maavärinad, vulkaanipursked vulkaanilisi mägesid kokku 130 läbilõige saarest: Ühe maavärina iseloomustus 29. mai 2008, Islandi lõunarannik, ulatus põhjarannikuni Richteri skaalal 6,3 magnituudi sügavus 2 km Väljavõte seismograafist 29. mail 2008. aast...
Graafikuid on võimalik koostada: a) Residual Plot (regressioonijääkide ja muud näitajad) Näide: regressioonijääkide sõltuvus vaatluse järjekorranumbrist b) Fitted, actual plot (hinnatud mudel, tegelikud andmed) Näide: tegeliku Y ja arvutusliku Ŷ vaheline seos c) regressioonijääkide normaaljaotuse kontrollimine Tabelid - menüü Analysis a) display actual, fitted data, residual (algandmed, arvutuslikud Y, ja regressioonijäägid (üks osa tabelist) b) forecasts - Y arvutusliku 95%-lised prognoosiväärtused c) confidence intervals – regressioonikordajate usalduspiirid d) ANOVA tabel (Excelis teostatud regressiooni väljundtabeli keskmine tabel (hajuvused, R2, F)) 5. Multikollineaarsuse testimine OLSi menüü Tests –> Collinearity 6. Heteroskedastiivsuse kontrollimine Heteroskedastiivsuse kontrollimiseks kasutada OLS-i menüüd Tests ja avanevast rippmenüüst valida White’s test või muu huvipakkuv test ja anda
1920s. Radio is generally the first of the news media to report a local story or a news service bulletin. A radio announcer can interrupt a programme with a new flash as soon as the report comes in. Millions of people depend on the radio for regularly scheduled news bullets. However, most radio news bulletins do not report the news in detail. In five-minute broadcasts, for example, the stories average less than 30 seconds. Many people also rely on radio for weather forecasts and traffic reports. Television is a widely used telecommunication system for broadcasting and receiving moving pictures and sound over a distance. Millions of people watch television for amusements during their free time. But television provides viewers with more than just entertainment. Most people get a large proportion of their news from TV news broadcasts. Television also broadcasts programmes that help explain a story or subject.Such programmes
Energiamajandus. Taastumatud energiavarad. Avaldatud Creative Commonsi litsentsi ,,Autorile viitamine + jagamine samadel tingimustel 3.0 Eesti (CC BY-SA 3.0)" alusel, vt http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ee/ Energiamajanduse mõiste Energiamajanduses tegeletakse: energiavarade hankimisega (primaarenergia) nafta ja gaasi ammutamine, söe, põlevkivi, turba, uraani jm kaevandamine) nende töötlemisega elektriks (elektrijaamad) mootorikütuseks (nafta töötlemistehased) ahjukütuseks (kütteõlide tootmine) energia kättetoimetamisega tarbijale (kõrgepingeliinid, jaotusvõrgud, torujuhtmed, tanklad). Inimeste igapäevane energiatarve kasvab päevane tarbimine tuh kcal Mis valdkondades on energia tarbimine kõige enam kasvanud? Maailma rahvaarv kasvab kiiresti energia vajadus suureneb miljardit BTU ...
customer-articulated needs; b) select materials and suppliers in conjunction with procurement, and c) develop production technology in manufacturing flow to manufacture and integrate into the best supply chain flow for the product/market combination 4. Manufacturing flow management process: The manufacturing process is produced and supplied products to the distribution channels based on past forecasts. Manufacturing processes must be flexible to respond to market changes, and must accommodate mass customization. Orders are processes on a just-in-time (JIT) basis in minimum lot sizes. Also, changes in the manufacturing flow process lead to shorter cycle times, meaning improved responsiveness and efficiency of demand to customers. Activities related to planning, scheduling and supporting manufacturing operations, such as work-in-process storage, handling,
ja aasta, lehekülje number. Näide. Läänemets, U. Teadmised pole ka tulevikus jõuetud. Õpetajate leht, 24. detsember 1999, lk. 4. Interneti materjalid Soovitatav on kasutada uurimustööde koostamisel Interneti andmebaase. Kasutatud kirjanduse loetelus tuleks tuua autori perekonnanimi ja initsiaalid (kui need on teada), materjali pealkiri, materjali Interneti aadress, materjali kasutamise kuupäev. Näide. Berkowitz,K., Evaluating the Forecasts of Risk Models. (http://www.gloriamundi.org/var/wps.html). 29. märts 1999. 10 Kontonumbri standard. (http://www.pangaliit.ee/strdkonto.htm). 2. veebruar 1999. Intervjuu Kui töö käigus on tehtud intervjuusid, siis tuleb ära tuua intervjueeritava nimi, intervjuu pealkiri, intervjuu tüüp (üleskirjutis või helisalvestis), intervjueerimise aeg ja koht. Näide. Kuusik, U. Autori intervjuu. Üleskirjutis. Tallinn 9. veebruar. 1999
61 business entity majandusüksus 62 business management ärijuhtimine 63 business venture äririsk 64 canon seadus, eeskiri 65 capacity for work töövõime 66 capital contributions panus 67 capital gearing rahasuhe 68 capital market kapitali turg 69 cash book kassa 70 cash dispenser (ATM) sularaha automaat 71 cash flow forecasts rahavoogude prognoos 72 central bank keskpank 73 chain pankade, kaupluste kett 74 charges kulud, kulutused 75 charity heategevus 76 check-in sisseregistreerimine 77 clerk kontoriametnik 78 closed economy suletud majandus 79 collapse krahh, kokkuvarisemine 80 commercial considerations kaubanduse kaalutlused
Tuulest ja ilmaennustamisest Taimi Paljak sünoptik Veidi ajalugu · Ilma jälgimise algus ulatub antiikaega · Suur tõuge- baromeetri (Torricelli, 1643) ja termomeetri (G.Galilei termoskoop 1597, vesi-,alkohol-,elavhõbedat. vastavalt 1632,1641,1657) · Nüüdisaegse ilmaennustuse alguseks loetakse 1860- ndaid, mil telegraafi leiutamine tegi võimalikuks vaatlusandmete kiire edastamise · Globaalne telekommunikatsioonisüsteem (Global Telecommunication System- GTS) · Numbrilised ilmaennustusmudelid (Numerical Weather Prediction-NWP models · NWP - globaalmudelid (GM)- nt.GFS,ECMWF piiratud ala mudelid (LAM-Limited Area Models)- nt.HIRLAM, ALADIN Ilmavaatlused nii maalt kui õhust Maapealsete vaatlusandmete esitlusskeem Sünoptiline kaart 22.08.09 Õhurõhu jaotus maapinnal · Kiirgusbilanss määrab atmosfääri ja selle all oleva maapinna soojusliku seisundi, ...
to governments on how to tackle economic difficulties. (IMF) The IMF provides policy advice and financing to members in economic difficulties and also works with developing nations to help them achieve macroeconomic stability and reduce poverty. The IMF supports its membership by providing (IMF) policy advice to governments and central banks based on analysis of economic trends and cross-country experiences; research, statistics, forecasts, and analysis based on tracking of global, regional, and individual economies and markets; 4 loans to help countries overcome economic difficulties; concessional loans to help fight poverty in developing countries; and technical assistance and training to help countries improve the management of their economies WB(World Bank) World bank was created on 1944 and finance development projects.
TALLINNA TEHNIKAÜLIKOOL Majandusteaduskond Ärikorralduse instituut Ettevõtluse õppetool Siim Aru GLOBAALSED NAFTARESERVID, NAFTA TARBIMINE JA TULEVIKUSTSENAARIUMID Referaat aines Ärilogistika Õppejõud: dotsent Tarvo Niine Tallinn 2016 SISUKORD SISSEJUHATUS ............................................................................................................ 4 1. NAFTA KUI RESSURSS .......................................................................................... 5 1.1 Nafta definitsioon ................................................................................................. 5 1.2. Nafta ajalugu ........................................................................................................ 5 1.3. Nafta olulisu...
The life of top sportsmen is only hard work and no fun at all. Nowadays sport is not so popular with young people as it was about ten years ago. WEATHER 1. What´s the weather like today? 2. What does the weather forecast say about tomorrow? 3. What kind of weather do you like best? Describe the weather you like best. 4. Is it good to have four seasons? Why? Why not? 5. Which season do you like best? What is your favourite season? Why? 6. Do you listen to weather forecasts? Do you read them in the newspaper? 7. What is the most terrible weather you have ever seen? 8. What will the weather be like if swallows fly very low? The sun sets into a cloud? The sunset is red? Dogs eat grass? 9. Have you ever tried to forecast the weather? What were the results? 10. What kind of things do you like doing outdoors? 11. Do you think Estonia has a good climate? What do you like about it and what not? 12
in the supply chain Over- or under-reacting to demand expectations, such as ordering too many units or not enough Customer companies, often retailers, waiting until orders build up before placing orders with their suppliers, a practice called order batching Discounts, cost changes and other price variations that disrupt regular buying patterns Inaccurate forecasts from over-reliance on historical demand to predict future demand KUIDAS VÄHENDADA? Foster supply chain communication and collaboration. Better alignment around supply chain issues both within the company and among customers, suppliers, distributors, manufacturing and the rest of the partners is needed. In particular, when suppliers work to understand customer needs, they can work to help reduce excessive inventory. Use better forecasting and visibility tools.
maksumuskontrollis ja -prognoosimises. Ka kohalikud võimud on selle tegevusega tihedalt seotud. Enamik suurte ehitusprojektidega seotud valitsusametitest on korrastanud oma eelarvestamistegevust ja koostanud soovitusi normaalse maksumusplaanimise ja -kontrolli süsteemi kasutamiseks, sidudes neid juhised maksumusnormidega. Aluseks on Rahvusliku Majandusarengu Ameti poolt kaks korda aastas avaldatav bülletään Construction Forecasts. 5. Ülikoolide ja tehnikakõrgkoolide uurimistööd Maksumusplaanimisest on arenenud teadusvaldkond ning tekkinud vajadus mahukateks uuringuteks: haridusasutustes on koostatud tööprogramme üldise maksumusplaanimise ja -kontrolli teooria arendamiseks. 6. Tehnilised teabesüsteemid Aastaid on kasutatud ka raamatukogusid, kus sisaldub ehitustootmisega seotud kommertskirjandus. Selle kirjanduse põhiotstarve on valmis materjali andmine praktikutele, et töötada suure hulga erinevate toodetega
..................................................................... 82 2.8.5. Personal Taxation .............................................................................................. 82 2.9. Financial Reporting ................................................................................................... 83 2.10. Currency Regulations............................................................................................. 86 Appendix 1. Ukraine. Key macroeconomic forecasts. ...........................................................89 Appendix 2. Ukraine. Development of IT Outsourcing industry - selected charts ..................90 Appendix 3. Ukraine. Summary of Doing Business indicators...............................................92 Appendix 4. Ukraine. Chart of withholding tax rates. ............................................................96 Appendix 5. Belarus. Summary of Doing Business indicators. ..............................................99
o 4 off 540 kHz elements for the 2 axis log function o 1 off 270 kHz element for the auxiliary echosounder function 117 118 NAVTEX DEBEG 2902 This is paperless dual channel Navtex reciever. It monitors simulataneously 518 kHz and a selectable secondary frequency either the national 490 KHz or the4209,5 kHz for long range services. Navtex is an international, automated system for instantly distributing maritime navigational warnings, weather forecasts and warnings, search and rescue notices and similar information to ships. Echosounder DEBEG 4630 Features: • Single or dual channel operational covering 2 to 1000 meters of depth in 8 range steps manually or automatically • Single channel 50, 100 and 200 kHz • Dual channel 50/100, 100/100 or 50/200 kHz • Up to 24 hours automatically stored data • Stored data can be displayed graphically and digitally • Audible and visual alarm • Connected with ECDIS, VDR etc.
Orthodox Serbian revolt that has broken out against the Turks. Meanwhile, amid the joys and fears of fatherhood, Levin no longer feels he lacks Christian faith; he decides to give his life its own meaning through acts of goodness. Part 1, Chapters 1-6 The first line of the book is one of the most famous in literature: "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." The line leads into a household crisis between a wife and husband, Dolly and Stiva, but also forecasts the issues that will arise throughout the rest of the book, all of them having to do with personal relationships and family structures: especially those of Stiva and Dolly, Anna and Karenin, and Anna and Count Vronsky. Stiva's habits are described in detail. To avoid arguing with Dolly about an affair he had with another woman, Stiva tries to distract himself by plunging into his work. He reads a liberal newspaper and comes off as a bit of a rogue (Tolstoy himself was a conservative)
It's 10 was working training regime. difficult to tell what kind of lesson 11 started 2 She hadn't studied basic Nepalese. they're in. Their teacher is handing 12 had lived 3 She had obtained long-term a paper to one student. It could be 13 happened weather forecasts. that they're in a maths lesson. These 14 didn't want 4 She had planned a route to the students aren't wearing uniform. It 15 insisted looks as if one of them is asleep. summit.
In traditional management, planning is based on CPM. This technique uses work-break down structuring to create work clusters (tasks) which must be completed to deliver a project. Afterwards, tasks can be measured in terms of resources required to perform them. The next step is about putting tasks into a logical sequence. The main problem with this well-known technique is that it is unpredictable, as it rejects intermediate and frequently short-term planning. It is based on forecasts and usually done by the main contractor managers who are not the ones responsible for completing the given tasks. Research conducted by Glenn Ballard and Greg Howell early in the 1990s revealed that only 54 % of jobs planned for a week were finished; i.e. short-term planning is insufficient and resources which are not well planned are pushed on the sub-contractors, where sub-contractors have no rights to say "NO" if they want work; i.e
New Year's," said Bob Gregory, who has been police department and wanted the weather- the forecaster at WTHR-1V in Indianapolis for man arrested for bringing all the snow." nine years. A woman upset that it had rained for her Most of the forecasters claimed they are daughter's wedding called Tom Jolls of accurate 80 to 90 percent of the time on one- WKBW-1V in Buffalo, NY, to give him a piece day forecasts, but longer-range predictions of her mind. "She held me responsible and get tricky. And most conceded they are simply said if she ever met me she would probably hit reporting information supplied by computers me," he said. and anonymous meteorologists from the Na- Sonny Eliot of WJBK-TV, a forecaster in tional Weather Service or a private agency. the Detroit area for 30 years, recalls predict-
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