Stages of democratization

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Stages of democratization
The old regime breaks down.
New democratic structures are built. Initial fragility
These new structures become embedded; their removal is unthinkable: ‘consolidation’.
Structural factors :
– Factors that are ‘unchangeable’ or change slowly; ‘preconditions’
Historical
Economic
Political
W. Germany 1950s: educated, literate population, but residue of authoritarian attitudes, poor
experience of Weimar democracy?
E. Germany 1990s: educated, literate, good knowledge of West German system – (relatively) easy adaptation once East German state collapsed
Mexico: as economy developed did potential for democratic structures increase? South Africa: little apparent scope for change?

Transitions theory

1. liberalization of authoritarian rule
2. civil society pushes the boundaries of change faster and farther
3. holding of fair elections of uncertain outcome.
Elite vs mass
West Germany – 1950s – mass element largely absent – ‘guided’ into democracy by Adenauer and economic success

East Germany 1990 – mass protests against communist rule undermine regime; when it crumbles no obstacle to unification
‘Wir sind das Volk’ (we are the [East German] people becomes ‘Wir sind ein Volk’ (we are one [united German] people)

Mexico – crises (economic, 1985 earthquake) brought gradual change. Ironically, pro-democratic electoral reform was greatest when ruling party
(PRI) was strongest. PRI needed a credible opposition. Both bottom up and top down (though former was stronger). Pres Zedillo (1994-2000)
accelerated reforms.

South Africa: Mass protests played a determinative role, but timing contingent on elite decisions…but elites lost control of process<br>

Domestic vs international factors


Germany 1950s:
Context of division, occupation: western allies insist on democratic renewal
Effective leadership and economi recovery provide space for accommodation with democracy
Germany 1990s
Gorbachev removes protection from East German state, end of Cold War
East German civic protest thus enabled, removing east German regime, paving way for unification
Mexico:
International – pressure from IOs, other states, donors, learning effect from reforms elsewhere, etc.
Domestic pressures come from crises or lack of ‘delivery’ of services, growth, etc.
South Africa
Domestic: uprising ‘ungovernability’

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