Business peciliarities in Ukraine and Bealrus
The chart below illustrates dynamics of Ukraine's foreign currency reserves, clearly
indicating that capital outflow accelerates.
Source: National Bank of Ukraine, Ukraine Macro Outlook for 2013 by UkrSibbank (BNP
Paribas Group)
For the last several years the NBU has shielded the UAH against sharp depreciation, despite
the widening gap of the balance of payments. This may be explained by the population's
extreme sensitivity to any drop in the exchange rate, which immediately triggers
withdrawals of UAH retail deposits.
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For example, by opinion of BNP Paribas Group's bank in Ukraine (UksSibbank), UAH rate was
(Q1 2013) overvalued by 15%.
Devaluation of domestic currency is never black and white issue. Again, in view of BNP
Paribas Group's bank in Ukraine (UksSibbank), devaluation of the UAH will not notably help
the balance of payment in the current environment. At first glance, Ukraine's exports should