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expect more failures reported. Of 194 respondents, only four gained weight or remained the same. Don't forget: these respondents were reached after leaving comments on a blog post or self-selecting by responding to Twitter or Facebook. The challenge of the missing dropouts belies a common weakness with questionnaires that are open to the public: those most likely to respond are often those who have had positive results.8 This is a form of survivorship bias, a concept well worth understanding. Looking at average mutual fund returns from last year to pick a winner? Don't forget that you are asking the survivors. The casualties--what Nassim Taleb refers to as "silent evidence"-- aren't around to be polled. The "average" returns are less impressive if you can include the people who bet the farm and lost. Finding those dead bodies is hard, especially in nances, when there is so much incentive to cover them up.
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