Sea duty alternated with cryptologic work until, in March of 1941, he went to Pearl Harbor with Admiral Kimmel as the cryptanalyst in 1±1±J SUKUlABUi UKliJNTALS 303 a. fleet security unit. He immediately began working with the Combat Intelligence Unit and in February of 1942 was formally transferred to it. He was then 39, a broad-shouldered redhead with craggy features and big hands whose strong resemblance to a tugboat captain—his nickname is "Ham"—belies his gentle manner and his courtesy. He too remained in cryptology throughout the war, winning the Legion of Merit; like Dyer he stayed in it afterwards, winning a gold star to his Legion of Merit. He retired in 1957. With the entrance of the Rochefort group into the fray against jN25b, the three Allied cryptanalytic units in the Pacific and OP-20-G in Washington began working in the closest possible cooperation. Positive
problem. THIS DATA SET MIGHT NOT ACCOUNT FOR DROPOUTS--THE PEOPLE WHO TRIED AND GAVE UP. Given the number of failures in the 3,000 comments reviewed, between 3% and 5%, one would expect more failures reported. Of 194 respondents, only four gained weight or remained the same. Don't forget: these respondents were reached after leaving comments on a blog post or self-selecting by responding to Twitter or Facebook. The challenge of the missing dropouts belies a common weakness with questionnaires that are open to the public: those most likely to respond are often those who have had positive results.8 This is a form of survivorship bias, a concept well worth understanding. Looking at average mutual fund returns from last year to pick a winner? Don't forget that you are asking the survivors. The casualties--what Nassim Taleb refers to as "silent evidence"-- aren't around to be polled
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